The Race is On, Palomar Versus Allergan - PMTI, AGN, JNJ

Who woulda' thought appearances mattered so much?

0 Comment(s) - Post a Comment

# / Rating : 0 / 0.00 - 1 : 2 : 3 : 4 : 5

Monday June 8, 2009 6:50 AM PDT

By James E Brumley

In case you didn't hear it on Friday, Palomar Medical Technology's (PMTI) over-the-counter wrinkle-removing device was approved for at-home use by the FDA late last week. The stock went hog wild on the news (of course). With the euphoria wearing off, however, it's time for a little perspective... some data the market didn't care to find out during Friday's buying frenzy.

The device, co-developed by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), is intended to treat wrinkling around the eyes using lasers. No prescription is required to purchase one, and users can perform the procedure at home themselves.

There's no word yet on what the cost will be, though some analysts think sales of the device could add anywhere from $12 million to $40 million worth of revenues to the company's top line in fiscal 2010 (which is also calendar 2010).

Considering the company was only likely to do about $61 million in sales this year, and was expected to do roughly $68 million, that's not a bad little bump.

What we don't like, however, is that the market cap is now over $300 million, and the company's not been profitable over the prior nine months.... in any of those three quarters. Apparently, skin care - even the clinical level, hard-hitting kind that Palomar specializes in - takes a back seat during a recession.

We think the drag of the recession is over, but in terms of a price/sales ratio or a potential price/earnings ratio (even next year), PMTI shares remain on the expensive side.

That's not to say they can't or won go higher. If you're trying to justify a purchase based on future or present fundamentals, you likely won't be able to. This is more of a momentum stock akin to tech stocks in the late 90's, which managed to dole out big gains to those who knew when to get off the train.

In the very near-term (as in later today), play it by ear... guessing where it will close today is a coin toss. We think it's over-extended, but the market doesn't always care.

As for the other side of the equation, the introduction of an at-home, wrinkle-removing device is expected to take a bite out of Allergen's (AGN) Botox business. Don't worry too much yet - Allergan was expecting to pull in $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion worth of Botox revenue this year. So, clearly the device won't destroy Allergan anytime soon. If it's well accepted though, it could gradually eat into those sales.

The key to the future, ironically, probably isn't successful domination of the eye wrinkle market. Both Allergan and Palomar are both already looking for other uses for their respective products.

See, the FDA's 'approved use' is very limited in terms of which parts of the body can be safely treated by Botox, and now lasers. By finding more uses for each treatment, the potential market grows considerably for each. Allergan seems to have the lead on that front, but the race is definitely on.

Perspective and insights like this one are great, but they don't mean a thing unless you can turn them into specific, actionable ideas. To get the 'good stuff', complete with trade entries and exits, sign up for the newsletter today.

Post a Comment
 

Title of the comment

Content of the comment

 
Bookmark and Share
 
Welcome! 
 

Interact and communicate with other savvy investors. Publish your own research and analysis, comment and rate other member articles of interest.

Discover and share the next big hidden gems!

Join Today! Creating a free account is simple and easy. Just go to the menu bar at the very top of this page and select "Join".

 
Why Become a Member? 
 
  • Connect, share and prosper from insightful analysis by experienced investors and traders.
  • Communicate, collaborate and exchange ideas on stocks and other market related topics.
  • Promote your knowledge and expertise and gain access to valuable SEO tools and functions.
  • Learn from investors and traders who have successfully navigated the markets for years.
  • Identify stocks and other investment ideas you never would have found elsewhere.
 
Whitelist Us 
 

Having Trouble Getting Our Email Newsletter?  Whitelist Us.

Click here for more info...

Wednesday October 28, 2009 4:35 PM GMT
If you’re a fan of trading the SPDR S&P 500 Fund (NYSE:SPY), or any index vehicle for that matter, you may want to put your bearish hat on. It’s no secret that the market’s been sinking for the last few days - we’ve seen plenty of ebb and flow since March. What traders may not [...]
Monday March 30, 2009 2:50 PM GMT
Wow. It’s not too often stocks lose a collective 3% within the first 5 minutes of trading. I suspected we were due for a nasty pullback (the kind of dip I forecasted on Thursday), and sure enough, here it is. The S&P 500 has now given up 4.8% from Thursday’s high. Is this enough to [...]
Thursday March 26, 2009 5:53 PM GMT
I hate to be a wet blanket here, but since nobody else seems willing to do it, I’ll put the task on my shoulders. So, here goes - despite the 22% bounce since March 9th, it’s not like the market is out of the woods yet. We still have some barriers to break through before [...]
Tuesday March 24, 2009 6:11 PM GMT
Yesterday’s gain was touted as being the best gain of the year. Fine, but that’s no big deal. The sellers have been relentless most of the year, so it wouldn’t necessarily be a great feat to be the biggest gain of the year (less than three months) so far. What I’m kind of baffled about [...]
 
SCN Newsletters 
 
Friday November 20, 2009 8:46 AM PST
Since we didn't have any new trades last week, we definitely want to add a couple this week to refill some of the ones we carved out a couple of weeks ago. As usual, we've got one bullish pick, and one bearish pick. Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) - Bullish Surprised? Don't be. Advance Auto Parts Inc...
Friday November 13, 2009 9:15 AM PST
Assuming today's trading is uneventful and we don't make an unexpected move within the next few hours, we're probably going to end the session a little higher than Thursday's closing levels. And, that'll mean a decent 2.0% gain for the week. The situation is not nearly as bearish as the numbers would...
Friday November 6, 2009 9:43 AM PST
Though stocks slipped back into the red pretty quickly this morning after disappointing employment news was digested, the market should end the day with a decent gain for the week. I still have my doubts about this week's rally though. The buying volume was never all that strong, and we're still overbought...

This community is currently in beta and is constantly undergoing active development.  Please be patient as we strive to bring you a usable, full-featured community that you will enjoy.  If you should have any questions, problems, suggestions, feature requests, rants, and/or raves, please do not hesitate to let us know by writing us as : webmaster@smallcapnetwork.com.